Global credit funds & CLO's
January 2020
| Issue 219 Published in London & New York.
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News
Falling correlation reignites passion for index tranche trades
Dan Alderson
Deputy editor
Sayed Kadiri
Editor
Michelle D’Souza
Reporter
January 2020
|
Issue 219 Dispersion in the global corporate credit market is rekindling interest in correlation trading, with dealer sources reporting that a late surge lifted 2019 index tranche volumes to $250 billion. That’s an increase on the $215 billion recorded in 2018 and comes as idiosyncratic risks abound.
The index tranche market is widely regarded as the best way to express views on falling credit correlation. But the same dynamic presents a challenge for the CLO market, especially as senior tranches squeeze tighter.
According to a presentation at the Creditflux CLO Summit in New York by Sound Point Capital Management’s head of structured products Ujjaval Desai, the average price of collateral in US portfolios was 95.6 in October. But he pointed out the percentage of loans trading at less than 90 cents peaked in October at around 12%, which was much higher than when loans softened in December 2018 (8%). Moreover, in that month there were only a few loans trading over par, whereas in October 20% did so.
Speaking on a panel at the conference, Cara Roche, portfolio manager at Zais Group, said CLO equity investors were better off in deals with less diversity. “A little less diversity in the portfolio and more correlation can work for you because you’re actually pushing more of the risk up into mezzanine tranches in those scenarios,” she said. Therefore, high conviction portfolios could be appealing for equity investors.
In the new issue CLO market, it would be difficult to produce a deal with a lower-than-average diversity score given junior CLO debt spreads have jumped wide (
Read
). And in the CDS market, spreads have been so tight as to make CSO economics challenging (Issuers fashion new outfits for junior mezz
Read
).
Craig Bergstrom, chief investment officer at Corbin Capital, says the current bout of loan volatility is being caused by a mixture of factors. “We’ve been seeing a lot of dispersion — more than you can justify on a true fundamental credit basis,” he says. “Last December, it was overwhelmingly technical and here there is definitely some shade of fundamental, especially within double Bs.”CSO arrangers look to build on $65bn of issuance in 2019
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“A little less diversity in the portfolio and more correlation can work for you”
Cara Roche,
Portfolio manager | Zais Group