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News Investor’s Corner
‘Investor demand is robust despite macro market noise’
by Shant Fabricatorian
Creditflux: Investec is known for its focus on the core US middle market. What interesting developments have taken place?
I think it’s clear. Technicals may still be there and supportive, and the deals are getting done, but it’s more of a slow marathon to concluding on all the tranches.
Michelle Manuel: While we mainly focus on the US middle market, we also buy European BSL and private CLOs and invest in US BSL when the market dislocates and we can get some convexity. Similarly, we occasionally buy European BSL in the primary, but also mainly in market dislocations.
In the US mid market, while there are positive factors, we have a proliferation of PIK. We don’t love that, but at the moment, managers are disciplined and view it as a manageable tool. I’m referring to that core and lower middle market in this respect.
In terms of new entrants, we’ve evolved away from the tier 1s to the middle-tier players. We hadn’t historically done any new entrants into the middle market. More recently, you’ve seen quite a lot. But by new entrants, I want to clarify that while they are new to issuing CLOs, they generally have long-established credit platforms. Kohlberg, as a case in point, has operated in that market for many years, before considering CLOs as an attractive financing tool. We’ve invested in a number of these newer entrants, and we’ve got really good relationships with the teams now. It’s been a very positive development.
CF: CLO technicals have long been strong, but there is chatter about “noise”. Do you still see them as resilient, or are there concerns?
MM: Investor demand is robust, despite what seems to me is a lot of noise in the macro market. While the resilient demand may be true, I can say, anecdotally, we are seeing deals taking a lot more time to conclude. Some transactions we were shown in late August or early September, concluded late in October. On the arranger side, there has been a lot of competition for transactions and, in some cases, there was evidence the arranger banks may have been investing in the transaction to ensure execution. More recently, some of them have stepped back a bit in terms of outright support.

Anecdotally, we are seeing deals taking a lot more time to conclude
Michelle Manuel
Co-portfolio manager, structured credit
Investec
CF: What do managers tell you is their read of the market?
Incentives seem misaligned, because a manager is now paying a spread wide of BSL, but starts with a portfolio comprising a large amount of BSL. This implies the incentive is there to do possibly higher-paying BSL, which in my mind indicates higher risk. They are then incentivised to ramp into private credit as quickly as possible to get the economics to be much more attractive – again, this speaks to possibly being less disciplined and less cautious.
MM: A good number have alluded to the fact that they’re more focused on diversification, and are being very thoughtful around the industries to which they lend.
Software is a case in point. They said they have done extensive research in this industry and are cautious around what they will do here. Other areas they are reducing exposure to typically include industries exposed to macro risks.
CF: Hybrid CLO structures are attracting interest in the market. Does that include Investec?
MM: I don’t think we’re that interested. We’ve got a cautious view, and we differentiate the middle market and BSL. Structurally, they’ve adopted a kind of quasi-middle market structure. In pricing, it’s wide of BSL, tight of middle market, and I frankly don’t think the relative value is there. It’s giving the manager a lot of optionality, but I don’t think you’re rewarded for taking that complexity.
I do acknowledge the potential value of hybrid CLOs, but I think it still needs to be cycle-tested. While the relative value is nuanced, in that the risk is untested, right now, given that uncertainty and the added complexities, the economics don’t seem compelling.