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Opinion
January 2024 | Issue 260
Past returns
Arc of the covenants
Five years ago, CLO investors were fretting about deteriorating covenants.
Wells Fargo calculated that “If half of the B3 loans were to be downgraded tomorrow (and assuming all Caa1 rated loans were trading at 50 cents), the CLO would lose more than three points of OC cushion.”
Meanwhile, analysts saw downgrades as ‘the biggest near-term fundamental risk to CLO investors”.
The timing may have been a few years off, but triple C buckets are now filling up, and attention is again turning to those OC tests.
Points up front
In a different league
Amongst the sea of asset managers bravely ‘predicting’ that their favourite asset classes will continue to outperform, Saxo Bank likes to stand out with its “Outrageous Predictions”.
Among depressing suggestions like “World hit by major health crisis as obesity drugs make people stop exercising”, “US heralds the end of capitalism with tax-free government bonds” and “Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis” one scenario stood out — that emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia creates a global soccer champions league after buying the UEFA Champions League franchise.
Given the deep love of sporting metaphors in the CLO investor community, we can’t wait to hear the first call for global CLOs in a conference panel next year.
Shooting for the top (corner): could CLOs get a kick out of going global?
Outrageous suggestions #2
At a conference we were chatting with a veteran investor who suggested it is time to bring back the CLO-squared.
For those readers who are too young to remember, CDO2 were one of the more questionable products of the structured credit boom that led to the great financial crisis. But although the CLO version took some hits, in the end, said the investor, CDO2 worked out “okay”.
So if the arb gets any worse, expect ingenious CLO bankers to come knocking with a great “new” idea.
THEY SAID IT
“We urge you to use the full extent of your regulatory authority to assess the potential risks that private credit may pose”
Too much success can be a dangerous thing as US Senators Sherrod Brown and Jack Reed call on the Federal Reserve for increased scrutiny of private credit.
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Global credit funds & CLO's
January 2024 | Issue 260
Published in London & New York.
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